Regular Tuesday betting columnist Richard Hoiles is away this week. Andy Stephens, whose nap Oh It's Saucepot won at 3-1 on Monday, deputises and has five tips
By Andy Stephens
Half of the 58 horses to have represented Frankel in Britain this year have chalked up at least one success and another of his offspring, La Figlia, will add spice to the action at Kempton (6.20) on Tuesday evening.
A daughter of 1,000 Guineas winner Finsceal Beo, La Figlia smashed the Irish foal record at Goffs in 2014 when knocked down to Australian entrepreneur Paul Makin for €1.8 million. She was initially in training with William Haggas but, unraced at two, was switched to Jeremy Noseda at the backend of last season.
She will have to overcome a wide draw and several rivals who have already shown a fair level of ability if she is to justify odds-on favouritism on her debut - she's no bigger than 5-6 - but, on the plus side, must be showing plenty of speed at home to be starting off over six furlongs because her pedigree points to further suiting her best. Noseda also had her entered for the mile maiden at Kempton on Wednesday but prefers the shorter route.
It is a not a race to be punting on, but well worth a watch. In terms of having a bet, hopefully a few of the the below will hit the target. An eternal optimist, I'll be sticking them in a Super Yankee.
2.25 Hamilton: Retribution
Newmarket-based David Lanigan is sending Retribution on a 700-mile round trip to Hamilton (it is the trainer’s only runner of the day) and so it seems safe to assume the three-year-old is not a social runner.
Retribution can make his lengthy journey from Newmarket to Hamiltion pay off
I imagine Lanigan is seeking softer ground for the Iffraaj colt because he was a tad disappointing when a beaten favourite on fast going at Yarmouth last time, having previously shaped like a certain future winner when narrowly failing to get up on an easier surface on his return at Lingfield (traded at 1.04 on Betfair).
Retribution remains open to improvement and faces modest/exposed opposition. I thought he would be favourite but you can get 5-1 with most firms. Fleetfoot Jack, up 6lb for his win at Hamilton last time, and Mr Cool Cash may provide the biggest threats.
There are unlikely to be any hiding places in this two-mile handicap because Arthur McBride and Corpus Chorister like to get on with things, while Percy Veer and Fleeting Visit usually sit near the pace as well.
That should play into the hands of Aurora Grey, a strong stayer who is generally patiently ridden and will be reunited with Jim Crowley for the first time since the combination clicked at Lingfield in December.
It says much for Aurora Grey’s subsequent progress that she has to compete off a 21lb higher mark but she is thriving on her racing and ran as well as she has ever done on her latest start when chasing home Cool Sky in the Goodwood Handicap over an extended 2m4f last time. This is easier and the 11-4 available with Coral and Ladbrokes looks very fair.
Backing 10-year-old horses ridden by 7lb claimers is usually asking for trouble - often the veteran animal is merely providing his young partner with some valuable experience - but I’m happy to make an exception in this case.
Joe Packet is not the force he once was - he had an official rating of 104 at his peak and operates off 79 here - but he retains plenty of zest and gave Pierre-Louis Jamin his second success when winning by a nose over course and distance in late May.
The combination, available at 5-1 with bet365, also gelled back at Goodwood the following month but the 7f trip stretched Joe Packet in the closing stages and, after touching 1.45 in-running on Betfair, he faded into fourth.
Back over six furlongs in an ordinary contest, the pair can strike again at the principal expense of the expensive to follow Jashma, a beaten favourite in three of his past five starts and now equipped with first-time cheekpieces.
I started this column writing about a horse bought as a foal for a fortune but State Sovereignty, purchased for 1,500gns at a horses-in-training sale a couple of years ago, is from the other end of the spectrum.
Don’t be put off by the fact she’s a cheap buy, though, because she’s shown more than enough ability to think she can win this prize on her handicap debut off a mark of 77.
State Sovereignty has twice gone close in soft-ground bumpers and was a 19-length winner in a maiden at Catterick last time. The effort that suggests she has got in a bit lightly, though, was on her previous start at Ripon where she was the only one to get anywhere near the now 84-rated Tarte Tropezienne.
State Sovereignty faces nothing as unexposed as Tarte Tropezienne this time and a well-run race on softish ground at a stiff track like Hamilton will play to her strengths. Invictus and Haymarket usually like to force the pace and I can see the pair setting things up nicely for Michael Scudamore’s stout stayer, who might easily go off much shorter than the 7-4 which bet365 offer.
The interesting one in the market is going to be is the Godolphin-owned Future Empire, the 2015 Bahrain Trophy runner-up who is potentially well treated on his return from two years off.
He commands respect but less risky is Velvet Revolution, who tanked along when a convincing winner over course and distance 13 days ago.
He has more on his plate in a better race off a 5lb higher mark, but he is clearly in great fettle and, most significant, should get the strong gallop that suits his hold-up style with Shades Of Silver being a habitual front-runner.
Andy’s selections for Tuesday:
(Prices correct at 6pm on Monday)
2.25 Hamilton: Retribution at a general 5-1
7.20 Kempton: Velvet Revolution at a general 9-2