Tony Calvin's top tips for Monday: Bank on Suzi's to be a 14-1 sizzler

By Tony Calvin
Sun 14 Oct 2018

Keep an eye on the weather and course updates before you punt on Monday, as the ground promises to ride on the heavy side at Windsor and Yarmouth with so much rain about, although it appears sunny skies are the order of the day at Musselburgh.

I will be treading carefully on the stakes front, as per usual, but hopefully I have found three horses who will acquit themselves well. It was going to be four but Roy's Legacy was a non-runner in the first at Kempton.

1.40 Windsor: The Night King at 10-1 with bet365

I am probably boring you with my headgear stats on a Monday, but I make no apologies for doing so as I think they are a powerful betting angle into lower-class racing.

Micky Quinn has only used first-time cheekpieces twice in the past two years, with an 11-1 winner and 5-1 runner-up, and he has put them on The Night King, who already has a live chance in the 1m3f99yd handicap.

He ran OK when fourth at Ffos Las but his better efforts have come with cut in the ground, which he certainly gets here – though he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft – and he is just 2lb higher than when a neck second at Yarmouth on his penultimate start.

They pulled 4½ lengths clear of the third, and the winner followed up next time (he is now 8lb higher), so the selection is weighted to run a big race.

Franny Norton, who was on board when the horse won at Lingfield earlier in the season and is Quinn’s go-to man, gets back on.

Bet365 were the first firm up and went 10-1, and that was acceptable. Hopefully bigger with follow.

Zatorius, second on heavy ground on his debut, is feared most. Wiley Post has strong form claims in the 3.10pm, and he was the only other horse to interest me on the card, though testing ground looks a big negative for him.

4.30 Yarmouth: Suzi’s Connoisseur at 14-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

He will not mind it if the ground turns very testing – he has won on heavy – and the handicapper has looked to have given him a huge chance.

He was rated 101 in his pomp but he is now down to a mark of just 72, which enables him to get into this 0-70 handicap.

He has been dropped 7lb for his past two runs, and is now 13lb lower than when a good third on soft ground here in May. Rossa Ryan takes another 3lb off, too.

I was expecting a single-figure price, so the 14-1 looks very big to me.

7.15 Kempton: Adena Star at 18-1 with Bet365

I don’t normally bet or tip in races for two-year-olds, but I am going to make a rare exception for this filly.

She was beaten a fair way on her debut at Lingfield but the bare facts don’t even tell half the story as she broke slowly, was settled in last on the inner, and then swung wide coming into the straight and stayed on nicely enough.

The stable is in fine form – with form figures of 6100413082222 this month – and this filly could add to that tally with that experience under her belt and stepping up to a mile, which her pedigree suggests will suit as she’s related to 1m2f and 1m4f winners.

Jonathan Portman brings his juveniles on slowly. Fellow juvenile filly Invincibella won second time out here this month, and hopefully Adena Star can follow suit.

The opening 18-1 with bet365 looks generous.

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