By Andy Stephens
With more rain forecast to hit the Sussex Downs on Wednesday night we are looking at really attritional ground for day three of the Qatar Goodwood Festival on Thursday.
That is not necessarily a bad thing from a punting perspective because the runners get more strung out in soft conditions and that means more room to manoeuvre. Naturally, that gives the best horse in the race more chance of winning instead of being a hostage to fortune.
Three Group One winners are scheduled to cross swords in the Qatar Nassau Stakes and that trio does not include So Mi Dar or Shutter Speed, who undoubtedly have the ability to strike at the highest level sooner rather than later.
Had the race been run on fast ground it would have been a no bet race because I could have made a case for plenty - especially as Nezwaah and Wuheida would have been left in - but the soggy conditions will put a very different slant on things and I reckon Winter is something of a banker to make the most of the 8lb that the older horses in the field must concede her.
Winter was impressive when bounding clear in the Irish 1000 Guineas
Some will have doubts about her staying 10 furlongs on testing going but she’s been strong at the finish in each of her three Group One triumphs over a mile this year and, for me, her most striking effort was when sauntering clear of her rivals on a slow surface in the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh in May.
Winter will probably have about 30 seconds or so longer to gallop on Thursday and, having clearly inherited plenty of stamina from super sire Galileo, I do not see that being a problem for the general 7-4 chance.
A slightly flat display when winning in the Coronation Stakes last time can be excused on account of it being her third race in quick succession. She should be in her element back on softer ground after a break and keep in mind that Roly Poly, who she thumped at the Curragh and Ascot, has subsequently chalked up two Group One wins of her own.
Another likely to relish conditions is Endless Time, who won the Lancashire Oaks on soft going last year and stands out in the Markel Insurance Fillies' Stakes (what was formerly known as the the Lillie Langtry).
Put a line through her effort in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot last time because the combination of quick ground and the extreme trip clearly were not to her liking.
She is a class act when able to get her toe in and had previously shaped like the best horse in the race on her return when a close fourth to Dartmouth in the Yorkshire Cup, having signed off last year by chasing home the top class Vazirabad in Group One company in France.
This is a weaker race against her own sex and she is running over what is probably her optimum trip (1m6f) on going that will not trouble her. On official ratings she is the best horse in the race and the general 7-2 is appealing.
Not many of the juveniles in the Qatar Richmond Stakes (3.00) are proven on anything but a sound surface but Nebo is an exception and the Charlie Hills-trained colt will do for me at a general 7-2.
He coped well with soft going when powering to victory over 6f on his debut at Newbury (Thursday's rival Grand Koonta well adrift) and after failing to make much impact on fast terrain at Royal Ascot he bounced back to beat all bar the exciting Gustav Klimt in the 7f Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last time.
Nebo drops back to 6f but his stamina seems certain to be brought into play.
My other fancy on the card is Addeybb, trained by William Haggas, in the opening Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (1.50).
Unraced as a two-year-old, the Pivotal colt is quickly making up for lost time this year and there was plenty to like about his attitude when he won over a mile on his handicap debut at Ascot last time.
He has to cope with a 6lb higher mark but he is open to plenty more improvement, especially over the extra quarter of a mile, and he shaped well on soft ground on his debut - no surprise because his the stock of his sire, Pivotal, are usually at home in the mud.
How To Bet £20 on the third day of Glorious Goodwood:
(Prices correct at 4pm)
Plus a £10 win double on the pair with bet365
1.50: Addeybb £3 win at a general 5-1
Plus a 40p Win Yankee on the quartet