How To Bet £20 on Saturday: A 25-1 cracker for the Cambridgeshire

By Andy Stephens@StevoGG
Sat 30 Sep 2017

Andy Stephens advised backing Brorocco (14-1) and James Garfield (4-1) last Saturday after Capri (5-1), Dan Troop (5-1) and Aclaim (100-30) the week before. His past three How To Bet £20 on Saturday columns have yielded an aggregate profit of £405

By Andy Stephens

John Gosden has been there, done that and got the T-shirt but even by his standards Sunday at Chantilly represents a massive day for him with Enable, the best filly he has trained (perhaps the best he has trained full stop) lining up as a short-priced favourite for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

The daughter of King George and Coral Eclipse winner Nathaniel stands out on form and the fact that she usually races prominently (made all at York latest) lessens the chances of her being a hostage to fortune in a big field where luck could play a part.

My punting weekend is not going to revolve around her, though, but a much less heralded Gosden runner in Linguistic, who looks well worth a punt at 25-1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes to land the Betfred Cambridgeshire under in-form James Doyle at Newmarket on Saturday (3.35).

The four-year-old has slipped in under the radar after being off for six months but he has got a good record fresh, shown himself to be fully effective on the Rowley Mile with some give underfoot and has more than a hint of unfinished business about him.

His form at a higher level stands up and, having had only seven starts, he is one of the most unexposed runners in the line-up.

Linguistic has found one too good in three Listed races since landing a valuable sales’ race at Headquarters on his return at the start of last year but, while showing smart form, appeals as the type to thrive in a big-field handicap run at an end-to-end gallop and Gosden is equipping him with first-time cheekpieces.

I’m not certain there is anything wrong with the colt’s attitude but if the aid makes even a small difference then so much the better.

“He’s been freshened up for the race and is in very good form,” Gosden said when I dropped the horse’s name into conversation at Newmarket on Thursday. “If he puts his best foot forward anything could happen.”

The trainer’s Tashweeq finished a close third in the Royal Hunt Cup in June at 66-1, so do not fall into the trap of thinking all his fancied runners go off at short odds.

William Hill are offering eight places to each-way backers, which is quite a concession, but on the minus side are betting to a higher over-round. Linguistic is only 16-1 with them but that is offset by the extra places if you want a safety net.

The two Group One races on the card feature well-fancied Aidan O’Brien-trained runners and having backed him at juicy odds at the start of the season to achieve a world record 26 wins at the highest level I will not be complaining if Clemmie (Juddmonte Cheveley Park) and Sioux Nation (Juddmonte Middle Park) win their respective races from the head of the betting.

However, neither appeal as betting mediums on their own because their form gives them little or nothing in hand of their respective rivals and I reckon both would prefer faster ground.

The one to be on in the Cheveley Park Stakes has to be French raider Different League, who looks chunky at 8-1.

There was no fluke about her 20-1 victory in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and the form stands close inspection with Madeline (fourth) and Clemmie (seventh) among the also-rans.

She surrendered her unbeaten record when a close third behind Unfortunately in the Prix Morny last time, but that was against the boys after a nine-week absence, plus the easier 6f that day was also against her.

The Rowley Mile should play more to her strengths, she boasts winning form on a soft surface and on official figures she is the equal of 7-4 favourite Clemmie (both rated 108).

Unfortunately seeks to follow up his Prix Morny success in the Middle Park and is one of several in with a shout but, at the odds on offer, Beckford gets the nod at 7-1.

The latter got going a bit too late when narrowly failing to peg back Sioux Nation in the Phoenix Stakes and that alone means he should never be twice the price of the winner.

Perhaps more significant, though, is that he is proven on a softish surface whereas Sioux Nation ran below-par the last time he encountered a slow top.

Beckford looked all over the winner of the National Stakes on soft ground last time (traded 1.18 in-running on Betfair) but simply did not get home over the 7f trip, with the highly regarded Verbal Dexterity outstaying him.

Beckford Curragh 102

The return to six furlongs will suit Beckford and, provided his latest effort has not left a mark, he seems certain to go close.

Nelson looked good when bossing the opposition in a Group Three contest at Leopardstown last time and, with Herculean ruled out by a dirty scope, he should make all in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes.

He’s a general 8-13 and, in the search of inflated odds, I will be backing him to beat Mildenberger, who shapes like a thorough stayer.

The ground at the other domestic meetings looks like being desperate and I gave up trying to find a wager in the 32Red Gold Cup at Haydock (3.15). Ice Age and Withernsea were half-tempting at double-figure prices but I ended up going in circles and am happy to sit it out.

How to bet £20 on Saturday: (prices correct at 11.30am)

OPTION ONE

1.50 Newmarket: £3 Exacta on Nelson to beat Mildenberger

2.20 Newmarket: Different League at a general 8-1

2.55 Newmarket: Beckford at 7-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

3.35 Newmarket: Linguistic at 25-1 Betfair, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power

OPTION TWO

£2 Win Patent and £3 each-way treble

2.20 Newmarket: Different League (8-1)

2.55 Newmarket: Beckford (7-1) with Betfair and Paddy Power

3.35 Newmarket: Linguistic (25-1)

OPTION THREE

Placepot perm at Newmarket (Sixteen £1 lines)

Leg 1: Nelson (number 4)

Leg 2: Different League (6)

Leg 3: Beckford and Sands Of Mali

Leg 4: Linguistic and Thundering Blue and Greenside and Battle Of Marathon

Leg 5: Bye Bye Baby

Leg 6: Clubbable and Exhort

Plus £2 each-way on 3.35 Newmarket: Linguistic at 25-1 Betfair, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power

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