Dave Nevison's top tips for Saturday: Projection can power home

By Dave Nevison
Fri 20 Jul 2018

Betting expert Dave Nevison has three fancies for the action on Saturday.

2.25 Newbury: Stratum

I’ve no doubt Willie Mullins has targeted this valuable handicap since Stratum's fine third in the Ascot Stakes.

It looked as though even 2 ½ miles wasn’t far enough at Ascot but I think it was more likely the short straight and I anticipate Robert Winston will find it easier on Newbury’s long galloping straight.

Given his owner, I will be watching the market closely for a positive move and fully expect one to come.

2.30 Cartmel: Wells De Lune

Peter Bowen had the choice of two races for this last time out course winner and looks to have made the right choice in pitching for the shorter distance event that he won over at the last meeting.

He has gone up a seemingly harsh 8lb for that length and a half victory but that is almost offset by the booking of very useful 7lb claimer Jodie Hughes, who gets on few with real chances but is effective when she does so.

Wells De Lune is one of two front runners in the field but Dodgybingo is not in anything like the same form so I expect him to dominate. Given that it has been worth backing Bowen horses blind at this track in recent seasons he should probably hold on.

3.00 Newbury: Projection

Making this five-year-old a confident selection goes against my rule of thumb regarding sprinters as, generally, I like them to be prolific winners before getting involved financially.

However, I believe there are good reasons to be with this horse on Saturday. Firstly, he is now a genuine Group class sprinter, maybe not Group One but not that far off - as he showed in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes last time at Royal Ascot - and certainly up to Group Three.

Even though he has been beaten in Listed company as well as Group Three this season, he was attempting to beat The Tin Man at levels in the Listed race and was against a race fit Brando and Sir Dancealot on his reappearance.

Harry Bentley rides for the first time, as well, which is no bad thing and Roger Charlton as I write on Friday has had seven winners from his past 15 runners.

Dave's top trio:

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