Dave Nevison's Saturday tips: Ladbrokes Trophy form is the right Approach

Sat 13 Jan 2018

Our betting pundit was £14.75 up to £1 level stakes to SP in his Saturday column in December and has three strong tips for the action at Kempton and Warwick.

By Dave Nevison

I believe the handicapper has been very generous in dropping Missed Approach 6lb for his sixth in what, after all, was the Ladbrokes Trophy. This is despite being beaten 27 lengths in what was formerly the Hennessy and never really looking like winning after a mistake in the home straight.

2.34235079 Missed Approach is the class act in Saturday's Classic Chase (PA)

I am of the strong opinion that this is very often the most significant staying handicap chase of the jumps season and runners should be watched closely afterwards.

Already one who finished behind Missed Approach, Vyta Du Roc has won at Cheltenham so this season’s race looks strong as ever.

Missed Approach has topweight in the Betfred Classic Chase at 3.35 at Warwick but most of the field are within a few pounds, so it is the mark rather than the weight carried that is important in my view.

None of his rivals would manage second in the Grade Two four-miler at Cheltenham, as Missed Approach did in March, or be in contention in a race like the Ladbrokes Trophy.

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Warren Greatrex is in excellent form at present and for the second week running I feel there is a good thing in a big handicap. Be reminded last week’s certainty ended up on the deck after jumping really well in the Welsh National!

Diese Des Bieffes looks to have a good mark (135) for the 32Red Lanzarote Hurdle, his first run in a handicap, but it looks as though his owner has had a hand in booking Mitchell Bastyan to take off another extremely useful 5lb.

Nicky Henderson has the best record at Kempton and the ground looks like being similar to when the selection won at Taunton and Fontwell in November.

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I am fearful of Harry Fry’s Bags Groove but the 5lb claim just does it for me.

Given that bookies are offering extra place terms most Saturdays I recommend an each-way double on these two horses with the most extra places you can get.

Alan King is excellent with juvenile hurdlers and I think he has another real contender with Redicean in the opening 32Red Casino Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton.

He was by no means suited by the soft conditions on his debut and drifted in price early in the race. However turning into the straight he looked extremely comfortable and was ultimately impressive. If he is to be a Triumph Hurdle horse (he is currently 25-1 with William Hill for Cheltenham) then he must defy the 6lb penalty today. I expect him to do so with ease.

Dave Nevison's Saturday bets:

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