Racing UK’s Royal Ascot day four betting guide
Friday 22 June 2012
Website editor Geoffrey Riddle put up Norfolk Stakes winner Reckless Abandon and Colour Vision as the winner of the Gold Cup yesterday at Royal Ascot while Fast Or Free was on his Britannia Stakes shortlist.
He has once again provided analysis for all six races on day four of the Royal Meeting, and has gone for a 33-1 shot in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and has opposed Astrology in the King Edward VII Stakes.
Cuis Ghaire, the 2008 victor, was the only filly in the past decade to have advertised her true ability before running in the Albany Stakes.
One or two runs rated in the 80s seems about the norm, before the winner pulls out a figure in excess of 100.
As such it is easy to see why John Gosden’s Newfangled is the 9-4 favourite. Her defeat of Fleeting Smile, who was sent off at Evens, on soft ground at Newmarket, looks remarkably good form.
Yet Agent Allison’s effort at Pontefract was almost as good. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s filly put seven lengths on nine rivals and looks a fair price at 13-2.
The one that could be of most interest, however, is Judy In Disguise at a whopping 25-1. Bill Turner’s filly hated the firm going when only sixth in the Hilary Needler Trophy. Sent of the 15-8 favourite she emerged from a poor draw and her regular partner Ryan While could not utilise his 7lb claim. Tom Queally has been enticed aboard and back on more suitable going she can continue to progress.
1: Judy In Disguise 2: Agent Allison 3: Newfangled
Astrology’s third to Camelot in the Derby is by far the best piece of form on offer and Aidan O’Brien's colt is accurately priced at 5-4.
The mount of Ryan Moore looked to appreciate the step up in trip to a mile and a half at Epsom and had no problem sluicing through soft ground when running out an 11-length winner of the Dee Stakes at Chester in May.
Astrology could be taken on for the lead by Thought Worthy, however, and like yesterday’s Ribblesdale Stakes late developers can catch up for this while others are advertising their claims in the Classics.
Noble Mission’s performance at Newmarket giving Thought Worthy 5lb when going down by a neck looks impressive given what John Gosden’s colt achieved in coming fourth at Epsom.
1: Noble Mission 2: Astrology 3: Thought Worthy
With Frankie Dettori now in possession of his mojo after Colour Vision’s victory in yesterday's Gold Cup it would not be surprising to see him win the Coronation Stakes on Laugh Out Loud.
Dettori was on the cold jockeys list, having partnered 44 rides without success before yesterday’s win. That will have done him the world of good, and it may be possible that he is on the best filly anyway.
Although ten of the past 12 winners had finished in the first six of a European Guineas, the English Classic for fillies won by Homecoming Queen was farcical.
With that statistic in mind it is hard to ignore Mick Channon’s other runner, Samitar, who won the Irish 1,000 Guineas. That form was franked by Ishvana’s victory in the Jersey Stakes. In hindsight Ishvana was priced at a ridiculous 20-1 and it is possible that Samitar’s 5-1 quote is also too big.
Fallen For You comes into the race having run over all-weather and is an intriguing candidate.
1: Samitar 2: Laugh Out Loud 3: Fallen For You
Gatewood looks to have the right profile for this contest in that he is an improving four-year-old but Qaraaba is also improving and looks a big price for what she has achieved.
George Baker’s mare has improved from a handicap perch of 73 last year to 101 this afternoon and at 8-1 she could be an each-way investment at the very least.
Danadana edged out Qaraaba at Newmarket in May but showed he was also improving when taking a handicap at Redcar on good to firm. The mount of Kieren Fallon has struggled in soft conditions in the past and may not be at his best at Ascot today.
It’s easy to be beguiled by all the victories of the American horse Hyper but last time out Chad Brown’s five-year-old beat Belo Acteon, a Brazilian Group 1 winner by five lengths giving him 2lbs. Whichever way you look at it that is decent form and if the going dries out 28-1 could look a huge each-way price.
1: Gatewood 2: Qaraaba 3: Hyper
Perennial looks the one to be on in the absence of a Mark Johnston runner. The Scottish trainer has saddled five of the past ten winners of the Queen's Vase but does not field a runner amongst the 12-horses in the line-up.
Perennial’s close second to Rockinate last season is one of the key formlines to the race and by finishing ahead of Astrology it looks worth paying 10-1 to find out whether he will stay two miles.
Minimise Risk cost an awful lot of money at the sales and needs to start paying his way after two terrible runs. Trainer Andrew Balding believes he has a St Leger horse on his hands but the Galileo colt must step up if he is to take a hand here.
Aidan O’Brien has won this with Mikhail Glinka and Mahler in the past decade and Athens looks the part.
1: Perennial 2: Athens 3: Yazdi
Lightning Cloud was many people’s idea of the Wokingham winner, but Kevin Ryan scuppered those best-laid plans to run in the Buckingham Palace.
The improving four-year-old has been taking a keen hold in his races, which was expected to be easier to handle over six furlongs.
Amy Ryan has been drawn beautifully around the pace and at 9-1 the pair are a fair price to run a big race.
The Rectifier would be of interest with Frankie Dettori on board, purely because he would know the horse from Dubai and the five-year-old would be one of the few front-runners and could just hold on.
The same applies to Bronze Prince, who looks a ludicrous price at 33-1, having beaten Dimension and finished fifth to Primaeval. Winning form in a big handicap at Ascot is also a significant plus and he probably should be half that price.
1: Bronze Prince 2: Global Village 3: Emilio Largo