Racing UK’s Royal Ascot day five betting guide
Saturday 23 June 2012
A 16-runner race for juveniles on soft ground is one of life’s trickier puzzles but Move To Strike looks to have everything going for him.
The son of Lawman, the 2007 Prix Du Jockey Club winner, proved he handled soft conditions with a devastating nine-length victory at the Curragh.
Much like Royal Ascot juvenile winners Ceiling Kitty and Reckless Abandon, Jim Bolger’s charge has had time to recuperate from his exertions and the 47-day layoff is crucial.
Move To Strike has already achieved a rating in excess of four of the past ten Chesham winners and should be very much in the mix.
Whether 6-4 is value, however, is hard to pin down but Bolger might save a smile if he is beaten by Frankie Dettori and Tha’ir. Bolger trained Tha’ir’s sire, New Approach, who could act in any going and the Godolphin colt won his maiden at Ripon on good ground by approaching five lengths.
Tha’ir is the only horse in the line-up entered for the Derby and should appreciate the step up to seven furlongs.
1: Move To Strike 2: Thair 3: Jalaa
Sea Moon has put in two monster performances during his seven-race career but in between has been disappointing. He was fully entitled to a rusty run at Goodwood in May, and Ryan Moore got the job done despite some nail-biting moments for those on at 2-7.
His form at the Breeders’ Cup behind St Nicholas Abbey does not put him too far ahead of Jakkalberry, who was three and a half lengths behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Dubai Sheema Classic won by Cirrus Des Aigles in March.
With Dunaden slowly coming to hand after his efforts in the Melbourne Cup and in Hong Kong, Red Cadeaux’s run behind Colour Vision looking very good now, and the improving soft-ground performer Aiken in the field this is no penalty kick for Sea Moon.
Memphis Tennesee might be the one to improve past the all, however, and having won the Ormonde Stakes on soft ground, when Sea Moon was scratched, he proved he handled today’s conditions and can go close
1: Memphis Tennessee 2: Aiken 3: Dunaden
Black Caviar looks virtually unbeatable. If you look at her fastest sectional time she is the only horse in Australia to have ever broken the 10 second barrier for 200 metres. Her fastest split is at least a second quicker than any of the four Australian horses that have won the King’s Stand Stakes and she should become the first mare to win the six furlong feature since 1988.
According to ratings, Moonlight Cloud needs to find around 10lbs, and there will be those who feel that the French raider’s proven ability to handle Ascot’s surface will stand her in good stead.
Last year’s champion, Society Rock, who was also runner-up to Australian import Starspangledbanner in 2010, looks underrated at 12-1 and at 7-2 in the without Black Caviar market.
The rain may well have dented any hopes of Krypton Factor overturning the favourite but if Fawzi Nass’s gelding turns up to run he is a massive price at 9-1 in the without market. His run at Meydan against Rocket Man is one of the best pieces of form going and his speed figures improved markedly during the Dubai Carnival. He is a horse going places.
1: Black Caviar 2: Society Rock 3: Moonlight Cloud
Eton Forever led home the Buckingham Palace Stakes on the far side of the track yesterday, and beat the next four home on the near side. All the action happened on the far side last year, too, and it could well be the same again today with Pepper Lane a confirmed front-runner emerging out of stall seven.
Desert Law looks a lively candidate to take the Wokingham for Andrew Balding. Owner Jeff Smith was toying with running his charge in the King’ Stand Stakes and has always rated him highly. He was gelded over the winter and refused to settle on his first start at Doncaster. Next time out Jimmy Fortune got his mount to settle much better in the ‘Dash’ at Epsom, which resulted in second to Stone Of Folca. The winning time was just 0.09secs outside a 52-year-old track record.
The four-year-old showed smart form last season at Ascot when narrowly going down to Morache Music in the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Sprint, and has a pull of stone now with today's rival.
Maarek looks tailor-made for the Wokingham also. All five of his wins have been on soft ground and four of those were over six furlongs and with over 20 runners. He looks a Group class sprinter but may just get found out with top-weight. Baltic King managed to win with 9st 10lbs in 2006 but had ran sixth to Takeover Target in the King’s Stand Stakes previously.
With that in mind, Medicean Man looks seriously well handicapped given his fourth place in the Group 1 sprint behind Little Bridge on Tuesday. Trainer Jeremy Gask has stated that his horse ‘grows a leg at Ascot’ and he had five Group 1 winners behind him
Godolphin’s Scarf and Lightning Cloud, who will relish being dropped back to six furlongs, are ones for the shortlist, while Pabusar of Ralph Beckett could be a leftfield choice at 50-1.
Draws of the placed finishers to the big-field races during the week.
King’s Stand Stakes: 7, 8, 22, 3; Coventry Stakes: 13, 16, 6, 21; Royal Hunt Cup: 33, 18, 21, 13; Britannia: 6,7,17,3; Buckingham Palace: 11, 23, 32, 25, 28.
1: Desert Law 2: Medicean Man, 3: Maarek 4: Lightning Cloud 5: Scarf
Camborne looks in danger of adding to the glut of winners John Gosden and William Buick had yesterday.
Soft ground and 12 furlongs proved the perfect tonic for the four-year-old this month when winning by seven lengths at Doncaster.
Spanish Duke can build on his effort last time out at Epsom. The five-year-old showed that he was on his way back on Derby Day when third to Fiery Lad and back on a softer surface he can improve on his two runs this season.
At bigger prices Stand To Reason handles soft ground well and could be one of the Tricast.
1: Camborne 2: Spanish Duke 3: Stand To Reason
All of the big guns have won at Royal Ascot this week. Frankel, Ballydoyle, Godolphin, Frankie Dettori and let’s hope Black Caviar. Even Willie Mullins got in on the act and it would be fitting if Paul Nicholls registered his first Royal Ascot winner.
American Trilogy finished third in a 12-furlong Listed event four years ago on his previous start on the Flat and the 2009 County Hurdle winner looks tailor-made for this marathon contest.
Mullins would not be running Simenon in this if he had not recovered from his victory in the Ascot Stakes on Tuesday. Of course Mullins will not know for sure, and it may be worth trying to get an in-running price on the five-year-old if he looks in good order after the first half a mile.
John Gosden is another who has made a significant impact this week and Zuider Zee looks a decent price to account for Overturn.
Overturn is likely to be taken on for the lead and jockey William Buick can hold up Zuider Zee to good effect.
1: Zuider Zee 2: American Trilogy 3: Simenon