How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Limato can be cup cracker at 5-1
Friday 14 July 2017
Caravaggio is one of the most exciting horses in training but whether he should be a general Evens to win a hot renewal of the Darley July Cup at Newmarket (4.35) on Saturday is debatable and, with the ground drying out, I’d rather have a few quid on Limato repeating his electrifying success of 12 months ago.
Track form counts for plenty on the July Course and Limato was an outstanding winner last year - showing a great turn of foot to thump 17 rivals in a swift time despite jinking right when out on his own in the closing stages.
Plenty has been said about the quality of Saturday’s renewal but last year’s was not too shabby, either, with five of the field rated 117 or higher. This time there are four.
Things have since not gone quite to plan for Limato, for a variety of reasons, but he shaped as if retaining all his ability when third in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last time - coming with a strong run inside the final furlong only for Ryan Moore to have to stop riding as The Tin Man and Tasleet combined to squeeze him.
I’m not saying Limato would have won with an uninterrupted passage but he would have gone very close and there has to be a chance he will step forward again because that was his first run since returning from Dubai with pulled muscles and, in the words of his trainer, being a bit of a mess.
The fact he enjoys the track is a big tick in his box - none of the other principals have this - and having Harry Bentley back on board is another plus. Bentley has had the Midas Touch for the past three Saturdays and will lack nothing in confidence.
Whether Limato is good enough to beat Caravaggio is a moot point but the younger horse is going to have to be sharper in the first half of the race than he was in the Commonwealth Cup to avoid running into traffic problems. For all he was impressive at Ascot, it is worth noting he traded at 5-1 when giving his rivals a head start.
The bet365 Bunbury Cup Handicap (3.25) never gets any easier to solve but I’m going to give one more chance to Bossy Guest, who looks well drawn in stall 17 and is a general 14-1.
He often gets going too late and has been frustrating to follow but he is 12lb lower than this time two years ago and his first two couple of run this term, when not beaten far in either the Spring Cup or Victoria Cup, stand close inspection.
Mick Channon’s five-year-old, who has been gelded since last season, did not fire in the Royal Hunt Cup last time but Adam Kirby, who rides him for the first time, is just the type to get the most out of him.
At Ascot, Mutakayyef looks banker material to repeat his win of 12 months ago in the Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (3.50), while at bigger odds the progressive Edward Lewis should go well in the totescoop6 Heritage Handicap (2.10).
The four-year-old, quoted at 12-1 by Paddy Power, has thrived since being gelded and switched to the yard of David O’Meara this campaign.
He looked an unlucky loser in the Dash at Epsom on Derby day and again did not get the rub of the green when a close sixth in the Wokingham last time. Edward Lewis runs off the same mark and has struck up a good rapport with 3lb claimer Josh Doyle.
Last but not least, Erik The Red is worth an each-way punt at a general 25-1 in the John Smith’s Cup (3.05).
The Kevin Ryan-trained five-year-old has always looked like he has a decent prize in him and he is only 2lb higher than when runner-up to Prize Money in the November Handicap at Doncaster at the end of last term.
He also has some solid York form on his CV, including when third to Scarlet Dragon over course and distance 11 months ago. Erik The Red is a hefty 16lb better off with that rival and hopefully first-time cheekpieces will encourage him to hit top gear a little earlier than he usually does.
How to bet £20 on Saturday
2.10 Ascot: Edward Lewis £2.50 each-way at 12-1 with Paddy Power
3.05 York: Erik The Red £2 each-way at a general 25-1
3.25 Newmarket: Bossy Guest £2 each-way at a general 14-1
4.35 Newmarket: Limato £3 win and £2 each-way at 5-1 with BetVictor and William Hill
50p Each-Way Lucky Fifteen
(general odds in brackets)
2.10 Ascot: Edward Lewis (12-1)
3.05 York: Erik The Red (25-1)
3.25 Newmarket: Bossy Guest (14-1)
4.35 Newmarket: Limato (9-2)
Plus £2.50 each-way on 4.35 Newmarket: Limato (5-1)
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