Luck: Five things to consider ahead of the Arc
Saturday 6 October 2012
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Snow Fairy is injured, Nathaniel sick, Danedream all dressed up with nowhere to go.
There’s no Frankel, but that was never really on; Camelot was a definite possible, then a possibly maybe, and now a probably definite with Dettori.
Great Heavens is such a good sub for Nathaniel she even shares his DNA.
Ryan Moore is moving mountains to ride Sea Moon, who has come on the scene late; not as late as Bayrir though.
And we’ve not even touched on the weather forecast, thus far as changeable and volatile as the runners and riders in the Longchamp contest.
If the climax to this Arc is as frenetic and as unpredictable as the foreplay, then we’ll all need to lie back, take a deep breath and light up a Gauloises.
Here are a few observations on the ‘events’, based on conversations over the last fortnight as well as plenty of idle pontificating.
1.Frankie Dettori may have taken a calculated risk in accepting the ride on Camelot.
Received wisdom has it that this marks a thawing of relations between Godolphin and Coolmore, but Dettori never mentioned Sheikh Mohammed in his Racing UK interview on Wednesday, and was clear he did not want to expand on the political ramifications of the story.
The balance of evidence suggests Dettori was left to examine his own loyalties, and to choose accordingly. Moving forward, will this – unlike Scorpion’s Leger – presage several big-race rides for Aidan O’Brien, perhaps continuing at the Breeders’ Cup?
Clearly, Joseph’s weight will not become any more straightforward to manage, and you sense that the piecemeal arrangement with Ryan Moore could begin to frustrate.
2.Lady Rothschild is playing the game the right way.
Sure, there are very few owners lucky enough to own and breed siblings as talented as Nathaniel and Great Heavens, but to stump up serious money to throw the filly in off the bench deserves some reward for its uncomplicated sense of adventure.
Money spent on broodmares over the last five years is beginning to reap some serious dividends on the racecourse, as evidenced by 23 winners from 68 runners in 2012 at 38%.
This is a serious and expanding ownership concern that will continue to be a major force in world bloodstock.
3. Orfevre appears to be getting more respect from his rivals than his own connections.
For all we may have got a little lost in translation, trainer Yatsutoshi Ikee certainly expressed more reservations about temperament, ground and field size than you would have liked if you had taken short odds about the Japanese wonder horse.
And that was before he drew stall 18.
By sharp contrast, Christophe Lemaire, second to Orfevre in Japan last winter, could barely conceal how impressed he was with a horse able to wheel round his field nine-wide and still beat a top-class rival with a perfect trip.
4. Alain de Royer Dupre may fancy Bayrir more than Shareta.
The legendary trainer is never one prone either to bombast or trash talk, but he was unable to enthuse over Shareta in quite the same way that he used to talk about Zarkava, or even Sarafina and Shawanda.
You sense he thinks she will run the same reliable race, but lacks the real brilliance to be considered ahead of the posse.
Against that, he had a distinct twinkle in his eye when talking about Bayrir’s recent homework since his Niel second, and fancied him so strongly to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf that his 11th hour supplementary must be seen as deeply significant.
5. Yellow And Green may be the best outsider of the lot.
Trainer Nicholas Clement has barely had a runner in the race since he won it with Saumarez as a greenhorn 26-year-old in 1990.
His lightly raced filly in this year’s running was a huge eyecatcher in the Prix Vermeille, is open to a huge amount of improvement, and will love the soft ground.
She will be patiently ridden, so may have a bit too much ground to make up, but could easily finish well enough to grab a place.
Get Nick Luck's weekly column first in Racing Plus every Saturday, and you can get it for half-price here!
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