Keep the layers on the ropes with Goken
28 July 2016
The wet weather at Goodwood on Thursday will no doubt impact on the ground. The vital question is to what extent as quite a few of the horses entered on Friday would prefer a sounder surface, including Franklin D.
It was a case of more gloom and plenty of doom from the on course bookmakers. Inclement weather always puts a downer on turnover and what money they did take was only concentrated on those that crossed the line in front.
Strange betting heat the Richmond Stakes, what can be probably assumed as presumptive money on Intelligence Cross through Wednesday night and up to lunchtime forced Mehmas out to 6-1, that contracted to 5-1 when Ardad defected.
Meantime Blue Point rocked between 5-6 to 8-11 back to 5-6 again, helped by a bet of £24,000 and many smaller.
Then the money never materialised closer to post time for Intelligence Cross and those on course started to plough on Mehmas. For bookmakers looking at the best price percentages they’d offered it was the stuff of nightmares!
In the aftermath, quotes of 8-1 were floating around for Mehmas to win the Dewhurst.
His connections were non-committal. However the little horse has paid a huge compliment to Caravaggio, his Coventry conqueror, who already has 2000 Guineas favouritism in lockdown.
Despite the weather punters poured out heavier than the rain to cheer home Big Orange and he delivered.
The loudest cheer of the week so far was afforded to their staying equine hero. He was an old-fashioned punters’ gamble - and he won in the hardest, earnest way possible. He ground it out against the most mightiest of foes in Pallasator.
More woe for layers came with California and to compound matters for them Rhododendrum was backed into odds-on. Just for reference, rewind to the first race and jot down in the notebooks Red Rannagh or at least watch that and Dwight D again. They’ll both be winning very soon.
So is there a getting out stakes? Franklin D is already very short for the Betfred Mile but conditions may save the layers.
I’ve changed my mind three times in the race, first Celestial Path, then Franklin D, now if the rain continues it has to be Azraff.
Compensation may also await for Goken on the card. He never got in a blow in the July Cup, but had previously run a blinder at Royal Ascot.
Also, Ayrad may be the forgotten horse in the first.
Looking ahead to the Saturday I had to do the draw duties for Bryan Smart in the Qatar Stewards’ Cup at midday on Thursday. Fingers crossed the five stall for Red Pike is a lucky one at least we are close to Dancing Star.
Hark at me aligning myself to the horse, when just last Saturday I thought Toofi was the one to be on. Funny how sentiment grabs you and just won’t let go.
Tanya Stevenson’s Friday tips for Goodwood
3.10 Goodwood: Azraff at 11-1 generally available
3.45 Goodwood: Goken at 12-1 with Paddy Power
Tanya Stevenson's Friday pointers for Goodwood:
2.00 Goodood - Betfred Glorious Stakes
Mount Logan is three from three at Goodwood
Eight of the last ten came from the first three in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners had run at Royal Ascot that season
2.35 Goodwood - Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes
The last nine winners had run in at least Group 3 (four of those in Group 1)
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
3.10 Goodwood - Betfred Mile
Eight of the last ten winners came from stall eight or lower (three of those were from stall one)
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners were no older four
Eight of the last ten winners finished in the first five last time (five of those finished in the first two)
Mark Johnston has won three of the last seven renewals
Over the last 14 years 26 apprentices have ridden in the race and all have been beaten
3.45 Goodwood - Qatar King George Stakes
Seven of the last ten winners had run in the King’s Stand Stakes
Nine of the last ten winners had run at Royal Ascot
Seven of the last ten winners came from stall 8 or lower
Only one three-year-old winner in the last ten years