Do be a hero and Scoop6 pointers
30 August 2014
3.50 Sandown Forgotten Hero
Racing continues to tie itself up in knots, without stopping to take a deep breath and dust itself down. It needs to step outside the bubble and realise how it must appear in the eyes or minds of those looking in. That said, that window continues to close, due to social media, courtesy of passionate supporters, bloggers, tweeters.
You deserve more recognition than you receive. Keep going everyone, and that includes my boss Geoffrey Riddle and fellow scribes Donn McClean, Angus McNae, Harry Bentley and Kirsty Milczarek.
As much as we may choose to ignore bookmakers and their cries, they are still the biggest conduit to the sport’s customers. From Monday until Thursday there have been 28 races (20 of them handicaps) with five runners or fewer, in relation to 35 with 10 or more runners (22 handicaps) and not one with 16 plus runners!
I know the weather carries some responsibility but it continues to be of grave concern that the root problem to racing still resides in limbo and a solution is claimed to be “in hand”. Tolerance threshold, I’m guessing, has long been surpassed.
Or should we ask Sandown and Chester what was the answer to filling their respective 2.05, 3.50, 2.20 and 2.55. Earlier in the month Yorkshire venues, Ripon, Doncaster, Redcar, Thirsk and York together with Goodwood, filled their cards with healthy field sizes. I know I harp on but I wonder whether relevant parties read, take in, hear, let alone listen to the warnings emanating from those who should be noted.
Last Saturday at York I was left disappointed with the amount of on-course bookmakers who joined the big firms on the rails in offering ¼ odds on the Betfred Ebor, we are left with virtual extinction. Disastrous!
I know it will be the same case at Sandown this afternoon. Also if you are thinking of going to Chester today, but want to do the Scoop6, do it before you go as that facility won’t be on offer at the course!
Racing has had to compete for my affections this week with the cinema, some great Premier League and European football action, the One-Day International in Cardiff (normal service resumed with India which was nice to see), European and PGA Tour golf (with ramifications for Ryder Cup selections), and more pre-season matches from the NFL with Oakland beating Seattle. There were huge celebrations in the household. I know it’s only pre-season, but baby steps and all that!
After a short, sharp, heavy shower the sun shines brightly through the window as I type. I wonder how much longer we can enjoy the warmth as we head into autumn. Time to make the most of it though for my selection Forgotten Hero - he needs plenty of moisture in the ground. This preference was displayed at Ascot on his last outing. The Cambridgeshire is his long-range target over nine furlongs, but for now I hope he shows his talent over 10.
The ever-building win and bonus funds of the Scoop6 adds another spicy element to today’s sport and is now back up to a life-changing amount. Last week saw a £2 punter hit the crossbar again. This week the complex six-race puzzle comprise of four racecourses and here are my thoughts:
SCOOP6 SELECTIONS Sandown 2.05 1 Pearl Blue & 3 Eccleston, Chester 2.20 3 Ballesteros, Newton Abbot 2.45 1 Clerk’s Choice & 4 Aalim, Chester 2.55 Alejandro, Beverley 3.05 7 Boxing Shadows, Sandown 3.50 Forgotten Hero = £8 outlay
Tagula Night has had six races at Sandown winning three and third once
Only two of the last 10 favourites have won Sandown’s 2.05 (2004 White Ledger, 2007 Indian Trail)
Over the last 10 years 20 three-year-olds have tried to win Sandown’s 2.05 only one has won 2006 Hogmaneigh
This marks 30 years since Oh So Sharp won the Solario Stakes back in 1984
Eight of the last 10 winners won on their most recent run (2009 Shakespearean finished third prior, 2006 Drumfire finished second prior) (Today Future Empire)
Eight of the last 10 winners came from the first three in the betting (2008 Sri Putra was fifth, 2005 OperaCape was fourth)
Ten of the last 20 Solario Stakes winners have gone on to run in the 2000 Guineas with Kingman doing best finishing runner-up (Native Khan was third in 2011, Redback was third in 2002)
Mark Johnston won the race in 2009 Shakespearean and in 2006 Drumfire (today Pallister)
Ten of the 14 winners of the Atalanta Stakes came from the first three in the betting
Adam Kirby and Charlie Appleby have teamed up for 13 winners from 33, 39% strike rate – Zibelina
Ryan Moore has won the race twice, 2009 Strawberrydaiquiri and dead-heating last year on Integral
In the last 20 years three-year-olds hold the superiority over the older horses 16:3 plus one dead-heat
Spa’s Dancer has had nine races at Sandown winning three, second twice and third twice he runs in Sandown’s 3.50
Over the last 20 years 26 three-year-olds have run in Sandown’s 3.50 only one has won 2006 Salute Him (today What About Carlo & Rydan)
Over the last 10 years the favourite has failed to oblige, though the market leader did finish second in 2013 York Glory, 2012 Masamah, 2010 Prohibit, 2007 Borderlescott
Seven of the last 10 winners had run in a Group 1 in their career, (2008 Look Busy, 2005 & 2004 Chookie Heiton had only run in Group 3s)
(Today Addictive Dream, Kingsgate Native, Mirza and Pearl Secret have all run in a Group 1)
Eight of the last 10 winners finished no better than sixth on their most recent run (2013 Stepper Point had won, 2005 Chookie Heiton had come third)
Seven of the last ten winners of the Beverley Bullet had previously run at the course
(Those who have already run at Beverley are Addictive Dream, Line Of Reason, Mecca’s Angel, Midnight Dynamo, Rocky Ground, Willbeme)
Jamie Spencer has ridden Pearl Secret seven times to four wins and a third
Ocean Tempest has won both his races at Chester
Over the last ten years only one favourite has won Chester’s 2.55
Adrian Nicholls has ridden Johnno five times to two wins, a second and a third
Despite only one favourite winning Chester’s 3.30 in the last ten years the biggest starting price of the winner has been 7-1