Racing UK

Tanya Stevenson

Bear can maul rivals in Celebration

29 August 2015

Saturday's bets:

An enormous amount of rain has fallen in the south. My base is not far from Goodwood and I’m glad, if not relived, it has been dry and warm on Thursday and Friday.  

The ground will dry to some extent from soft, and at least there is an evening meeting on Friday to work out just how much it has dried out, which I will be attending to help further my understanding of the conditions. 

Kodi Bear has an enormous chance of continuing his climb up the ladder despite a truncated season, although you’d prefer him to keep a straight line this time. He won with ease at in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury, despite running from far side to the near side to join the main pack.

You’d hope he wouldn’t be so independent this time round.  

Clive Cox’s charge showed so much potential as a two-year-old; he has probably thrived in joining the party mid season and the Doom Bar Celebration Mile appears his to lose.  

Prior to that is the 888Sport March Stakes and it could well go to Vive Ma Fille.  She may have only won once in her short eight-race career, but her trainer Mark Johnston has never shirked the issue of pitching her against the best and last time out was her best performance when fifth to Big Orange, Quest For More and Trip To Paris.  

Prior to that she was a close fourth in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, when wandering to the centre of the course.  

She receives plenty of allowances and with such a low weight could suddenly kick for home and steal the event.

The betting village

The betting landscape is changing enormously and what will be the ramifications? Are punters to be scratching around for diversity in prices as two of the biggest cheeky competitors join forces; Paddy Power and Betfair? It will leave their rivals floundering.  

Or is the marriage going to force the hands of their rivals into offering yet more concessions, or difficult to sustain percentage margins. It’s a common occurrence every Saturday that industry wide races are available at near 100% markets or under. They do it to entice us in, but at what cost?  

On-course bookmakers are keen never to go bigger than the exchange price, in order that they can facilitate being able to hedge into it and limit their liabilities or have none at all.  

Paddy Power will have sight and control of Betfair but how will that unravel? What other technology could be developed or is being developed?  

Those involved in both mergers - Ladbrokes and Coral and Paddy Power and Betfair, are keen to stress they will operate as dual brands, separate entities, but can this been maintained infinitely? 

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:

3.10 Goodwood: Vive Ma Fille at 100-30 with Paddy Power

3.45 Goodwood: Kodi Bear at 8-11 Bet365 and William Hill

Tanya Stevenson's pointers:

2.00 Goodwood - 888sport Prestige Stakes:

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting (six were favourites)

Amazing Maria won in 2013, Sky Lantern came second in the 2012

All of the last ten winners ran no more than three times previously (Epsom Icon, Hawksmoore and Light Up Our World qualify today)

2.20 Beverley - Beverley Bullettotescoop6 Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes: 

Only one winning favourite in the last ten years

Only two of the last ten winners finished third or better on their most recent run

2.35 Goodwood - 888Sport Handicap:

Magic City has run eight times at Goodwood to three wins and two thirds 

Eight of the last ten winners have come from the first four in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners have been drawn between six and nine (today Can’t Change It, Athletic, Tatlisu and Magic City derive from those stalls today)

3.10 Goodwood - 888Sport March Stakes:

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting

Seven of the last ten winners ran at that season’s Glorious Goodwood (Blue Surf and Vive Ma Fille)

Nine of the last ten winners finished no worse than third on their most recent run (today Fun Mac, Rawaki and The Twisler)

3.25 Newmarket - Stobart Club And Shop Hopeful Stakes: 

Eight of the last ten came from the first four in the betting yet only three were favourites

3.45 Goodwood - Doom Bar Celebration Mile:

Seven of the last ten winners have been drawn either one or two (Captain Cat or Breton Rock)

Only two winning favourites in the last ten years (2008 Raven’s Pass, 2013 Afsare)

Six of the last ten winners ran at Royal Ascot en route (2014 Bow Creek, 2013 Afsare, 2012 Premio Loco, 2011 Dubawi Gold, 2008 Raven’s Pass, 2007 Echelon)

Eight of the last ten winners had at least run in a Group One in their career (Fire Ship has yet to compete at top level)

Seven of the last ten winners had at least won a Group Three in their career (Gabrial has yet to win at Group Three level)

Jimmy Fortune (Raven’s Pass 2008) and George Baker (Premio Loco 2012)  have both ridden the winner of the race previously

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