I’m hoping for the same result in the Arc as last year
4 October 2015
Hopefully we are on the brink of something special - just the fact Treve has been allowed to attempt a third Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is a treat for us all.
She is one of only seven horses in history to have won the race twice. I sense the quill’s nib has been carved and is about to be dipped into the ink in readiness to rewrite history and the next chapter in ‘Arc’hives.
Only in very rare cases is our expectation and anticipation at such a high pitch – it’s hard to dare to dream, especially, and understandably, as there will be split allegiances for with Derby winner Golden Horn taking part. In any normal year we would marvel at his exceptional achievements.
There is a huge wave of sentimental emotional carrying most of us off on a voyage of hope, and that may lead many of us to wrongly overlook Golden Horn.
The ground is perfect for him, many who were in attendance at Longchamp on Saturday said it was on the fast side of good which is his ground. His wide draw is his biggest handicap.
It’s a measure of Treve’s greatness that she is a best-priced 6-4 and Golden Horn 7-1, sandwiched in between is New Bay trained by Andre Fabre who advertised his genius further, not that he needed to, with Esoterique in the Sun Chariot yesterday.
In subsequent television interviews, including with Racing UK’s Oli Bell, you could see his confidence in New Bay as well as his confirmation of Flintshire’s chance on his favoured ground.
As it happens I’ve backed Flintshire in the without Treve market as I think last year’s runner-up has a sound chance of chasing home the queen of Longchamp. My heart, however, is with Treve - the drama, tension and excitement will be immeasurable. Allez, Thierry Jarnet! Allez Treve!
Take Cover’s early pace can be utilised to maximum effect in the Prix l’Abbaye as most of those on his inner are hold-up horses. He could have an easy passage to the stand side rail in the sprint. Those inside of him include Steps, Sole Power, Muthmir and Maarek, none of whom are guilty of ever finding themselves anywhere near the front in the early skirmishes and, with them all jostling for a position, there is potential for them to get in each other’s way.
Providing he doesn’t miss the break, David Griffiths runner could poach a healthy lead and one which he can sustain right until the line.
We have seen so many times before how hard it is to come from behind in this sprint. The ground is perfect and he has put in two blinding efforts recently when just failing to hold off Muthmir at Glorious Goodwood and then third to Sole Power last time.
He has the benefit of having run in this race previously when last year he was sixth to Move In Time and was held up! I hope normal service will resume and he will be allowed to try to make all as his blistering early pace could burn the rivals off. Over to you David Allan and good luck.
Tanya Stevenson’s Sunday tips:
2.55 Longchamp: Flintshire each-way at 22-1 with BetVictor and Paddy Power
3.40 Longchamp: Take Cover at 12-1 with Paddy Power
Tanya Stevenson's pointers:
Treve has won five of her seven races at Longchamp
Over the last 20 years Marienbard is the only five-year-old to win the Arc all the other winners have been aged three or four
Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten Prix de l’Arc de Triomphes
Only two of the last ten favourites have won 2008 Zarkava & 2009 Sea The Stars
Five of the last seven were won by fillies 2014 & 2013 Treve, 2012 Solemia, 2011 Danedream, 2008 Zarkava
Andre Fabre has won the Arc race seven times (Trempolino 87, Subotica 92, Carnegie 94, Peintre Celebre 97, Sagamix 98, Hurricane Run 2005, Rail Link 2006)
Olivier Peslier or Thierry Jarnet could become the most successful Arc jockey in history if winning a fifth Arc on Frine and Treve respectively
Seven of the last ten winners of the Arc won on their most recent start
Eight of the last ten winners of the Arc had won at least two Group Ones (the two that didn’t are 2012 Solemia & 2006 Rail Link)
Workforce in 2010 is the only British-trained winner in the last ten years
Irish raiders have won the Arc twice in the last ten years 2007 Dylan Thomas & 2009 Sea The Stars
Nine of the last ten Arc winners came from a single figure stall which has been widely publicised across social media and in the press – 2013 Treve won from stall 15
Across the last ten years the winner of the Arc has been drawn in stall 6 on four occasions 2012 Solemia, 2009 Sea The Stars, 2007 Dylan Thomas, 2005 Hurricane Run
Seven of the last ten winners were trained in Britain
The last two-year-old to win was Sigy in 1978 – Gutaifan
Only three three-year-olds have won in twenty years 2009 Total Gallery, 1997 Carmine Lake, 1996 Kistena – Profitable
Only one winner had previously landed a Group One – 2008 Marchand D’Or
Seven of the last 11 winners were drawn in stall nine or lower
Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their most recent run
Six of the last eight winners had run at Royal Ascot
Pascal Bary has won the Prix Marcel Boussac on four occasions – Antonoe
Aidan O’Brien is attempting an eighth win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere 1997 Second Empire, 1999 Ciro, 2001 Rock Of Gibraltar, 2002 Hold That Tiger, 2004 Oratorio, 2005 Horatio Nelson, 2006 Holy Roman Emperor
Seven of the last ten winners have been aged three