What a great day to be a bookmaker!
4 August 2012
With two huge handicaps with twenty runners at Newmarket and two races with 28 runners at Goodwood most of the bookmakers standing at the tracks today will have woken up with a smile on their faces.
In huge handicaps like the Stewards' Cup I tend to try to break down the race in two ways. Firstly I look at the trends of the last few winners and remove the younger and/or older horses that have a poor records. Then I will split the stalls in two and pick a horse from either side of the track so I don't have all my eggs in one basket.
The draw is always important but pace of the race is paramount also. So with the usual parameters in place I have narrowed the field down to Oasis Dancer, who ran well in heavy ground behind Soul last time out and Marco Botti's Whalieyy, who stayed on well over five furlongs at Ascot last time and has the excellent Adam Kirby on board.
I will also have to have a small cover bet on Waffle, who I tipped up last week but was pulled out at the last minute. David Barron's six-year-old has not won for some time but handles big feels and will pop up soon in a big race like today - our editor has put him up in his blog, I see.
After listening to William Buick talking about the season so far in relation to The Fugue on Racing UK earlier this week I was surprised to see he has chosen Izzi Top today in the Nassau Stakes. I am going to take him on though and stick with The Fugue, who for me was the best horse in the Oaks and as anyone who has ever taken a tip from a jockey knows, they don't always get it right...do they?
At the other meetings at Galway I like they look of Ceol Rua, who was travelling sweetly before clipping heels and coming down in April. I also like the look of Jade, who runs well when fresh and should be a nice price for her seasonal debut for Ollie Pears and Lee Topliss at Thirsk.
At Newmarket I think the nursery will be fought out by the two horses at the top of the weights, The Gold Cheongsam and Momalorka and if Dance And Dance can repeat his performance that he put up last time he can double up in the 4.05pm.
Good luck today.
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Lay of the Day
Today's LAY selections should be set up at the usual rates @2.2win market and 1.44 place LAY
1.40 Doncaster Infinite Hope
Today’s Competition Selections (All 5 points win)
3.00 Galway Ceol Rua
3.15 Goodwood The Fugue
3.55 Goodwood Whaileyy
4.15 Thirsk Jade