John McWhinnie
Prolific’s Blog - Review and today
22 February 2012
.....would be a great name for a horse, but in this case it is the sledgehammer from the BHA’S Paul Bittar that should see some sense at last in the ‘falling down the stairs’ scenario of the whip debate. At last we have had some movement, I will wait until the jockeys have had time to digest the amendments before commenting, but surely any improvement on what we have at the moment must be welcomed.
Yesterday we saw a couple more winners for the McCain stable and a couple more losers for the Nicholls team, it will be interesting to see how Paul Nicholls form improves this next ten days or so, or there will be some serious movement in the markets over the next few weeks.
Final, final Cheltenham selections this week, I have a couple of ante-post slips but I have finally narrowed down the field and the following horses which will be backed now with a view to trading out a profit pre-race.
Day 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle: I think the opener will go to the Irish and I like the class factor of Galileo’s Choice for Dermot Weld, the gelding was a group winner on the flat and although running second two runs back, that was in heavy ground and if the ground at Cheltenham comes up any where better than good this horse will have a major chance and is currently priced around 8/1. Dangers I see as Balder Succes who went in the notebook at the weekend and I also have Molotof at a huge price.
Day 1 Arkle Chase: This will surely be fought out between the top two in the market, Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross, I have not had a bet in this race and I there is no value in either of these two to make a wager now, If I had to have bet I would look at Bog Warrior (25/1) who if jumps round will surely run into a place. Favourites have a poor record in this race and if I can lay the top two at 4/5 and 11/4 on the day I will be more than happy as I think this race may turn in to a bookies bonanza.
Day 1 Champion Hurdle: If there is a race at the Festival that you will enjoy just as much with or without a bet the Champion Hurdle will probably be the one. If Zarkandar, The Fly, and Binocular are all in contention coming up the hill the crowd will lift the roof off. The form of the Nicholls team puts me off Zarkandar who was reported to be coughing after his Friday victory so I must stick with Binocular as an E/W bet to nothing with a small saver on Zaidpour who is available at around 50/1, this horse disappointed last year in the Supreme Novice but later performances give the indication that was not the horses true running and at that price I can give it another chance to show his true form.
Finally if Scotsirish turns up in the Cross country race there will be only one winner. Just a word of warning, I am not a big ante-post punter as many things can happen even in the next three weeks and I would rather have a runner with a 6/1 price on it than a none runner at 16’s.
Day two and three will be on the blog later this week. Today I have an interest in two horses, the first is Munificence for Marco Botti and Chris Catlin in the 7.0 at Kempton, first time out he ran in snatches and a little bit green, with that experience behind him I think that the extra couple of furlongs and the Kempton track will be enough to beat the Mark Johnston newcomer who’s pedigree is hardly inspiring. If I can get anywhere above 6/4 I will be having a bet. Island Legend also catches my eye in the 5.30 at Kempton and once again has his stablemate Triple Dream to beat, another forecast may be on the cards, Triple Dream has a 6lb penalty from there tussle last time out to overcome.
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Grandouet is to undergoes hind leg surgery tonight and is more than a doubt for Cheltenham if not Aintree.
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Lay of the Day
Today's LAY selections-Please use these parameters (2.2 in running win market and 1.44 in running place market) are:-
Folie A Duex 4.15 Ludlow
Polyfast 4.50 Ludlow
Today’s Comp Selections
Munificence 10pts win.
Regards
Prolific
@ProlificRUK
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