Tanya Stevenson
Inchina at 20-1? Yes please!
21 July 2012
Today’s tips:
3.10 Newmarket Inchina
3.25 Market Rasen Al Co
3.55 Ascot Hawkeyethenoo
4.35 Ascot Nathaniel
The Milky Bar Kid leads the Open, well at least his doppelganger does! Brandt Snedeker, a favourite of mine, normally has his hot streaky play at the start of the season and his best chance of a major win is in the Masters, yet due to a rib injury he has had a few weeks off. It’s the same as coming into the event fresh. Still, it makes for compulsive viewing as Adam Scott, Tiger Woods and Jason Dufner (one to watch this year) are all heading the pack in the chase.
There’s also the First Test at The Oval: England v South Africa. Hopefully it will be free of interruptions as it promises to be a gritty battle. Apologies to all those who love two wheels as I failed to mention the Tour de France on the programme this morning and Bradley Wiggins with the yellow jersey almost his to take home. And there’s the German Grand Prix for Formula One fans. Darts are at Blackpool, also, for the World Matchplay sponsored by Betfair.
Then there is the racing and one, if not the best, King George line-ups I’ve seen for 30 years at least. I think the defending champion Nathaniel will win, while there are votes for Sea Moon and St Nicholas Abbey amongst the Morning Line panel. Racing UK’s Oli Bell found a viable case for Dunaden, but I can’t see how he can turn the tables with Sea Moon.
As for the International I love Hawkeyethenoo. He ran a cracker in fifth in last week’s July Cup, while there is really good money outside of Pricewise for Lightning Cloud. The cavalry charge sets off at 3.55.
Carlton House steps back in trip and all the 11-10 with Coral has gone even the 10-11 with William Hill is a distant memory, and 8-11 even 4-6 is more likely his starting price.
This is a day where some good things can slip under the radar. Street Entertainer has been backed from 12-1 into 13-2 in the 2.50 at Market Rasen, while Charlotte Rosina in Newmarket’s 2.00, Steps and Kyleakin Lass in Newmarket’s 2.35, and Kyllachy Star in the 3.45 are all very popular on all betting platforms.
One horse I can’t believe at the price is Inchina. I remember Inchmurrin galloping up the July course to victory a few years ago and the whole family have ability. She can’t have lost her zest in just two runs and 20-1 is just too big to miss.
It’s great to see jumping action to the fore and Peter Bowen’s record in the Summer Plate is second to none. Al Co is his representative today and even better for me he is ridden by the ever dependable Dougie Costello. Fingers crossed.
Here’s to a wonderful Sunday basking in sport, just a shame I haven’t got enough TVs!
Tanya’s pointers:
King George:
Sir Michael Stoute has had six winners from his last 13 runners
St Nicholas Abbey is one from six on right-handed courses
Joseph O’Brien has had six winners from his last 11 rides
All of the last ten winners of the King George came from the first four in the betting, six were favourites
Four of the last five winners of the King George took in Royal Ascot en route
Eight of the last ten winners of the King George finished either first or second last time out
The last horse aged five or older to win the King George was Daylami back in 1999 (Dunaden & St Nicholas Abbey)
The International:
Seven of the last ten winners of the International were drawn eleven or higher
The best placing in the last ten years for the favourite in the International is third
Horses to have run at Royal Ascot or in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket have the best record in the International
Market Rasen:
Four of the last five winners of Market Rasen’s Summer Plate won on their most recent start
From his last nine runners in the race Peter Bowen has had four winners, a second and two thirds
The last ten winners of Market Rasen’s 2.50 have been no older than seven
Newmarket:
Nine of the last ten winners of Newmarket’s 2.00 have been priced at 11-2 or shorter including five favourites
Six of the last seven winners of Newmarket’s 2.35 were 13-2 or shorter
Eight of the last ten winners of Newmarket’s 3.10 came from the first three in the betting
The last ten winners of Newmarket’s 3.10 were no older than five
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