If you already have the five you don’t need the other one
23 June 2012
It will all be about Black Caviar today at Ascot and the bookies are struggling to come up with new bets to entice the public in to having a wager on a race that if you listen to all the hype should be nothing more than a walkover. Unless you have money to burn backing her at 1/5 is asking for trouble, the famous saying goes, 'if you already have the five you don't need the other one.' I can't remember who said that but they were right and you would be better off trying to grab even money on Black Caviar winning by more than four lengths or picking a decent-priced outsider for a place.
If I had to do that I would look at Kevin Ryan's Bogart and wouldn't it just be 'typical Frankie' if Soul gave the Aussies a scare at a huge price.
The Wokingham at 4.25 is a puzzle that takes some solving. I still think there is another big win to come from Jim Goldie's Hawkeythenoo, who has won at the track before and although would prefer seven furlongs the soft ground may mean the race is set up for something to come from the back.
In races like this I usually cover myself with a horse from either side of the track as they usually split in two. On that basis I will have a small stake on Kevin Ryan's Lightening Cloud, who gets in with just 8st 11lbs and is drawn in stall two.
I think the second most interesting race of the day is the Alexandra Stakes at 5.35pm where Donald McCain's multi-tasking stable star Overturn aims to give the trainer his first Ascot win. Beaten by his stable companion in the Chester Cup when the ground was a bog he is a worthy favourite today but I will be keeping an eye on my old friend Romeo Montague over this extended trip for the first time and fancy an upset in the last to send the bookies home happy. Golden Sunbird for Mr Fallon and Paul Nolan fit the bill.
At Newmarket I am looking for the drying ground to help Bartolemeu to be able to use the speed he possesses to quicken up around the two furlong pole and take the handicap for Marco Botti and Ascot winner Adam Kirby. Watch out for David Elsworth's Odin in the last, who looks like he was going to win last time out before tiring in the final furlong, he will be winning soon.
The Ascot Racing Club management have decided Newmarket is a better target for their horse Expose in the 2.40pm.
Jamie Spencer takes the ride, and the drying ground and step back up to six furlongs should be ideal if this strong-pulling beast can settle in behind early on. It looks like an ideal race for the classic stalk and pounce tactics that Mr Spencer loves.
Jessica Harrington's Glamorous in the 4.20 at Down Royal and Hard Yards in the 2.45pm will be my Irish double and look out for John Gosden's Robemaker at Pontefract on Sunday.
I have a few friends attending the party at Haydock tonight that will be looking to me for a couple of tips for. The ground is very, very wet and more rain is forecast today so the best tip I can give would be keep your stakes small and if you have any money left by the 8.50pm go with Postscript, who surprised me by winning in soft ground last time. The form has been franked by the runner-up Lindoro running well in mid-week and the 7lb claim by the apprentice jockey may make all the difference in what will turn out to be a very long home straight.
Yesterdays 'LAY horse' Astrology thankfully finished out of the frame and I am going to take on another horse from over the water in the form of Jim Bolger's Move To Strike. I like the Bolger/Manning combination and Dawn Approach won well earlier in the week, but I am now thinking that he can't have two juveniles of such high quality and because of that win Move To Strike will be over-bet; exactly the type I like to take on at the short fixed-prices.
Good luck today.
There is no contest on who to add to your Twitter account this week: https://twitter.com/#!/AscotInsider
You can join Twitter now for free and follow myself and Racing UK to receive free updates, news and special offers as well as additional selections direct to your phone or laptop.
Lays of the Day
Today's LAY selections should be set up at the usual rates @2.2win market and 1.44 place LAY
2.30 Ascot Move To Strike
3.55 Redcar Cats Eyes
Today’s Competition Selections (all 5 points win)
2.40 Newmarket Expose
3.40 Newmarket Bartolemeu
5.35 Ascot Golden Sunbird
5.55 Newmarket Odin