Jazzi Top price looks absurdly short at Newmarket
1 May 2016
Once in a while you look at the odds of a certain race and have to scratch your head. Not often, but in the case of the Charm Spirit At Tweenhills In 2017 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on Sunday I cannot get my head around why Jazzi Top is so short.
Perhaps it is because John Gosden won the Dahlia Stakes with Izzi Top, Jazzi Top’s half-sister, in 2012 on her seasonal debut.
Jazzi Top ran a cracker of a race to finish second to Covert Love at Longchamp on her final start last season, but that was the third time the daughter of Danehill Dancer had failed to win at Group One level.
She is not even running over her optimum distance, and although the drop back to nine furlongs on good to soft ground is unlikely to be a problem, it is something that makes her price of around 15-8 look distinctly uninviting.
As a four-year-old her backers are right to expect progression, but even John Gosden has admitted she faces stiff opposition.
Arabian Queen is a Group One winner, and although her Juddmonte International win was somewhat fortuitous, she still went and did it and she could be hard to peg back on a track that favours front runners. She also finished ahead of Jazzi Top at Goodwood last year.
Sir Michael Stoute has a very good record on the Dahlia Stakes and saddles the promsing Crystal Zvedza. Irish Rookie’s form behind Ervedya last season is as good as anything Izzi Top has got and Andre Fabre’s Usherette could be dangerous.
I am essentially a layer but I cannot help but think that Amazing Maria is actually the best horse in the race, not only as a dual Group One winner, but in terms of rartings, speed figures and whatever eother pegs you care to use.
Regular readers will remember we landed a touch with her at Royal Ascot last season, when she took some time to get going for new trainer David O’Meara. That had more to do with getting acquainted with his new acquisition from Ed Dunlop’s yard, rather than anything else, and on the evidence of form she looks considerably overpriced at 5-1. O'Meara was considering running her in the Locking Stakes at Newbury.
I was very keen on Minding winning the Qipco 1,000 Guineas until Air Force Blue ran a complete stinker in Saturday’s Classic. Each horse needs to be considered individually on its merits, but her stablemate's run does temper my enthusiasm for her.
There are plenty more investments throughout the season to be getting involved with so I am happy to duck a drifting 6-4 favourite and chance my arm on Midweek at 10-1 without the favourite with Bet365.
The French have shown over the past decade that, as a whole, their fillies are better than the British ones, with three winners in the last eight years including Head-Maarek's fortunate Special Duty.
Head-Maarek loves the filles’ Classic and Midweek can build on her Prix Impudence second back up at a mile.