Treve can make Longchamp Erupt
3 October 2015
As soon as Treve crosses the line to make history at Longchamp in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday you are likely to hear that we will never see her like again.
It is an easy line, but getting a horse to run in Europe’s showpiece event three times is not as hard as it sounds.
Flintshire was the runner-up last year and took part, albeit from a safe distance, the previous year.
Youmzain was the bridesmaid three times in succession from 2007 and were Cirrus Des Aigles ever allowed to run in the race he may well have won it at least once.
Three-year-old cots are getting packed off to stud with increasing regularity – and had swamp fever not prevented Danedream taking part in 2012 Treve may well have become the eighth dual Arc winner last season.
Treve is obviously a sublime talent, and ever since the Racing UK cameras visited Chantilly early in the season to report that the queen of Longchamp was back on track there have been many who have held ante-post vouchers with sweaty palms throughout the summer.
There are obvious dangers. If Golden Horn’s constitution can hold up to a seventh race he poses a serious threat even if he is drawn wide. He has raced prominently over ten furlongs this summer, but in the Derby he was held up and Frankie Dettori will have no issue taking a pull out of the stalls.
If you have read Simon Rowlands analysis of the Arc draw on Timeform’s website, however, the lower drawn horses have a significant advantage on ground described as good or better.
That clearly pitches New Bay, the French Derby winner, in to the equation from his five draw but Erupt at 33-1 from stall four is also worthy of consideration.
The son of Dubawi was impressive in the Grand Prix De Paris, and lines through horses such as Silverwave and Storm The Stars suggest Francis-Henri Graffard’s colt is not far off New Bay.
The race suffered for a lack of early pace, but Erupt finished well and should be suited to the demands of the Arc.
Erupt was miles behind New Bay in the Prix Niel, but that Arc trial performance showed how much work Graffard needed to get into his charge and he will be a different proposition this time around.
Big-priced placed horses are legion in the Arc, with Youmzain returning at 66-1 and 20-1, along with the likes of Cherry Mix at 33-1 behind Bago in 2004, Shareta in the frame at 66-1 behind Danedream and Nakayama Festa edged out by Workforce in 2010 at 22-1
Elsewhere on the card I was very much looking forward to getting barrow-loads on Sole Power at a decent price, but the absence of Mecca’s Angel means that Eddie Lynam’s stalwart is now favourite.
Sole Power needs a fast pace and good ground or better to show his best and he should get that for the first time in Paris having been drawn beside Take Cover, and with Stepper Point on his inner.
The eight-year-old showed last time out in Ireland that he remains in the form of his life – did anybody really believe he could win on rain-softened going? - and he should go close. His price of 5-1 is surprisingly big.
Queen’s Jewel has been the subject of favourable reports from trainer Freddy Head, who believes there are valid excuses for the Saint Alary winner when she was tailed off behind Star Of Seville in June.
I think the French three-year-old fillies are much of a muchness, however, and I just do not see what Covert Love had done wrong. She does not appear to have much to beat in the Prix L'Opera.
If New Bay does run a huge race in the Arc. You can bet that stablemate Make Believe will be half the price to win the Prix de la Foret later on the card.
Make Believe slammed New Bay by three lengths in the French Guineas, and is reportedly back to his best. The 6-1 available could look a silly price by 4.50pm.
Geoffrey Riddle's Sunday tips:
2.55 Longchamp: Erupt each-way at 33-1 with William Hill
2.55 Longchamp: Forecast Treve-Erupt
4.15 Longchamp: Covert Love at 9-2 with Skybet
4.50 Longchamp: Make Believe at 6-1 with Bet365 and William Hill